While we're looking at trends here, I am also predicting another one about Taiwanese sports. And I know I'm going to get bawled out for this one.
Baseball is on the decline. Face it everyone!
That's right. Taiwan's pride and joy is going the way of the dodo. And not even Wang Chien Ming, Taiwan's savior, can stem this tide.
Baseball has been popular in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan since the post-war years primarily due to the American (military) presence in these countries. However, another sport has been rising at a breathtaking pace in recent years.
Basketball.And why do I believe this is happening? Well there are some clearly visible signs and some general things that can be said about affinity to sports in different countries.
Take a look around you. Kids in Taiwan are playing basketball in droves! When was the last time you saw a scrub baseball game?
And why do they prefer basketball? Well, there are many reasons:
a) it's easier to start a game, requires less players and less equipment and set-up and even space (which is at a premium in Taiwan!)
b) it can be played indoors (an asset considering the weather here)
c) it's faster paced and higher scoring (remember the up-and-coming generation has been raised on PS2 and PS3)
d) guys are getting taller due to dietary changes so basketball doesn't seem like such a far-fetched choice of sports anymore
There is a larger international trend to look at though. Soccer and more recently basketball are more popular than other sports primarily because they allow the most people to play and to play easily. It's no surprise that the poorer countries excel in soccer as, if you have some motivated kids and some basic equipment and set-up, you can have a game. It doesn't really have to be all that organized even. The same things can be said of basketball. (Even soccer, which is not popular to play or watch in Taiwan except than at World Cup time, is popular in China where scrub games are a common sight. However, I believe that even soccer cannot withstand the rise of basketball in China as the middle-class and crowded city-dwellers seek a sport that appeals to them.)
Once again simplicity, cost, space and pace all mean that aspiring Taiwanese are choosing basketball more often over baseball by far. Oral testing of students almost always plays this one out: 99% of students claim to play basketball in their free time while a show of hands in class only once in a while reveals a single student who played or had played baseball regularly. So I wonder if many young kids are really playing baseball these days, how long and where?
All these factors bode ill for baseball in Taiwan. Basketball is the clear future winner... for now...
2 comments:
I'm a huge baseball fan, thus, I am a hugely biased commenter on your blog.
I couldn't disagree more. Taiwan has only seen the beginning of the baseball craze that will eventually encompass the island, and here's why: There are over 40 Taiwanese citizens currently in America's minor league baseball system, or signed under a MLB affiliate, as opposed to 4 a few years ago. The number of scouts infiltrating the island, from both North America and Japan, is growing tremendously. Wang Chien-Ming stands to be one of the top 5 pitchers on the planet over the next few years, barring any injuries. Ticket sales in Taiwan's own professional league are up each year. Enrollment in youth baseball programs has never been higher.
True, you don't run into a lot of kids (especially in your classes) that play baseball. How many open parks with a backstop are there around Taiwan? Kids just don't have the space. Plus, the kids who play organized baseball are REALLY involved. Way too involved, if you ask me. Many of the successful teams are 'school teams', and they practice ALL THE TIME. Five hours a day, seven days a week. No kidding. I played college ball in the states, and we practiced 3.5 hours a day, and we were in our 20's, and we had scholarships. I can't believe what I see in some of these little league programs here. It's no wonder Taiwan is a world power in the Little League world series every year.
Anyway, just wanted to put my two cents in and stand up for the National Pastime. Long live baseball!!!
In the case of Japan, the postwar military presence has had no effect on the popularity of baseball there. Baseball was first introduced in Japan in 1872, and by the early years of the 20th century was already the country's most popular sport, and has remained so since then. There has been a professional baseball league in existence since 1936 (with the exception of the war years). The game has deep roots in Japan.
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